The president has stressed social and economic issues as he approaches a year in office.
Claim
Six allegations on elections, employment, financial inclusion, and Kenyans banned by borrowing agencies.
Verdict
One right, three somewhat right, one untested, one wrong.
Source
Kenyan President William Ruto (June 2023)
Ruto is correct that fewer election complaints were submitted after the 2022 elections than in 2017, but a governance expert told us the reasons were unclear.
The president was also basically accurate about the 83%-to-17% informal-to-formal employment ratio and the vast proportion of Kenyans living in slums.
Ruto was shakier on financial institutions and lenders, alleging that 10 million Kenyans were banned by credit reference agencies.
Kenya’s president William Ruto used a national holiday to make many economic and social claims.
1 June 2023 marked 60 years of self-government. Madaraka Day celebrates.
Ruto has led since September 2022. since 2013.
We examined his speech claims.
Claim
“124 election petitions were submitted in 2022 compared to 303 in 2017.”
Verdict
Correct
Ruto became president following a close election and a judicial challenge to his 50.49% victory. Raila Odinga, his biggest opponent, leads opposition demonstrations and refuses to recognise him.
On Madaraka Day, Ruto complimented the electoral commission for “a new high in election administration” in the August 2022 national elections.
“In reality, the fewer petitions filed—124 compared to 303 in 2017—affirm the openness and integrity of the 2022 election,” Ruto remarked.
Election petitions challenge a candidate’s win in court.
2022 petitions less than 2017 general elections?
Governor, senator, county women’s representative, national assembly member, and county assembly member election petitions totaled 299 in 2017.
The IEBC, which organised the voting, says this.
303 presidential election petitions included four more. The country’s court listed all petitions.
The IEBC received 124 petitions for five elected seats and nine presidential petitions in 2022. Ruto’s figure excludes presidential petitions.
2022 had fewer petitions than 2017. This assertion is accurate.
Why fewer election petitions?
Ruto ascribed the lower number to “the transparency and legitimacy of the 2022 election”.
Harder to prove. Dr. Roukaya Kasenally chairs the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (Eisa), a nonprofit that supports legitimate elections.
She told Africa Check that election legitimacy has numerous factors. Democracy analyst and University of Mauritius assistant professor of media and political systems Kasenally stated the IEBC might have fixed 2017 election faults before 2022.
In 2022, civil society, media, and election monitors may have helped.
“If one or both of the aforementioned claims can be established, then the claim might be accurate and this is due to a common knowledge and action of changing electoral dangers into electoral good practises which subsequently enable open and credible elections,” Kasenally told Africa Check via email.
The IEBC said poll officials’ “appropriate training” reduced election petitions. It presented an operating strategy before the 2022 elections that it stated contained electoral lessons.
The Carter Center, an international observer, noted technology’s advantages in its preliminary 2022 election assessment. Tess Wandia.
Claim
“Around 10 million Kenyans were banned by credit reference bureaus…”
Verdict
Incorrect
“Around 10 million Kenyans had either been banned by the credit reference agencies for incapacity to pay debts… or were struggling to pay,” Ruto added. He claimed this was one of several obstacles to Kenyan economic growth.
CRBs gather borrower data. CreditInfo, Metropol, and Transunion Kenya CRBs are regulated by Kenya’s central bank.
On 2 February 2021, Business Daily reported that a CRB identified 14 million Kenyans.
In July 2022, now-deputy president Rigathi Gachagua mentioned this number in a nationally broadcast election discussion.
Kenyan TV channel KTN News’ “fact-finder” disproved such assertion.
In an interview with the station on 16 February 2021, Metropol’s group managing director Sam Omukoko noted the 14 million figure was the number of blacklisted loan accounts, not persons.
Omukoko said Kenyans had five accounts with banks, MFIs, and saccos on average. Microfinance institutions and saccos are savings and credit societies.
“You may discover a bank account in default but a sacco or MFI account doing fine. Therefore, our subject. That wasn’t about credit reference bureau listings of defaulters “he said.
The “average default number” was three million.
On 14 November 2022, the Central Bank of Kenya reported 4.2 million borrowers, albeit only those from its commercial banks. Kenya’s competition regulator said in 2021 that they dominate 74% of digital lending.
The regulator’s number excludes digital lenders.
It’s false. Dancan Bwire
Claim
“83% or 15.3 million informal employment.”
Verdict
Mostly Right
Ruto stated informal occupations predominate. “Any small-scale activities that are semi-organised, uncontrolled and utilise modest and simple technology” are considered informal. The yearly economic survey from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics includes employment statistics.
Small-scale dealers, craftsmen, and entrepreneurs.
In 2021, 15.3 million Kenyans employed in the informal sector, according to the statistics agency’s 2023 report. In 2022, this was predicted to reach 15.96 million.
19.15 million Kenyans worked in 2022. 83.3% of workers were informal.
The president cited the outdated 2021 statistic of 15.3 million, although the current data show that the informal sector accounts for 83.3% of overall employment.
It’s mainly true. Makinia Juma.
Claim
“Just 3.1 million jobs are formal, 17%.”
Verdict
Mostly Right
Formal jobs have regulated hours, salary, employment rights, and income tax.
In 2022, 16.7% of the workforce was formal, up from 16.9% in 2021.
It’s mainly true. Makinia Juma.
Claim
“The Hustler Fund has brought at least two million new Safaricom members into their financial ecosystem.”
Verdict
Unproven
Kenya’s main telco is Safaricom. M-Pesa, a popular mobile money application, lets users transfer, receive, borrow, and pay.
The Hustler Fund offers informal sector Kenyans inexpensive finance. Kenyan mobile money wallets like M-Pesa get the money.
Kenyans might use the money from December 2022.
Did Safaricom gain two million members after the money launched?
Peter Ndegwa, the company’s CEO, told Citizen TV in Kenya that more individuals were using M-Pesa for loans because to the Hustler Fund’s growth.
“We have really witnessed two million individuals who were not actively engaged with M-Pesa, come back and actually borrowing,” Ndegwa remarked on 18 May.
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Safaricom publishes the average monthly M-Pesa users in its latest audited financial reports.
Safaricom’s M-Pesa subscribers (2020-2023)
Year
Signed up (million)
Change
(million)
2020
24.91
–
2021
28.31
3.4
2022
30.53
2.22
2023
32.11
1.58
Safaricom’s website reported 1.58 million additional M-Pesa members between April 2022 and March 2023.
We requested monthly M-Pesa subscription data from Safaricom from November 2022 to June 1 to validate the figures. Unproven until we hear back. Tess Wandia.
Claim
“Slums house seven million Kenyans.”
Verdict
Mostly Right
“Seven million Kenyans live in slums in indignity without bathrooms, without running water and without roads,” Ruto added in his address.
Slums are places without sustainable housing, enough living space, secure tenure, clean water, or sanitation, according to the UN Human Settlements Programme.
Kenya’s 2019 census estimates 14.8 million urbanites. In 2020, 50.8% of urban dwellers—7.6 million people—lived in slums, according to UN figures. World Bank uses this statistic.
In May 2023, we corrected the president’s six million figure. He changed it to seven million after our fact-check. The allegation is generally right, but 600,000 persons are missing. Tess Wandia
