After the presidential, National/State Assembly, and gubernatorial elections earlier this year, Nextier researchers warned that violence may damage the off-season governorship votes in Imo, Bayelsa, and Kogi States in November.
Nextier has advocated for security deployments and surveillance in hotspot neighbourhoods beyond voting days to maintain peace and order.
It also advised the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and police to clean up their acts during off-cycle elections.
In Nextier Policy’s report “Nigeria’s off-cycle elections and the impending violence,” Charles Asiegbu, Senior Policy and Research Analyst, Bridge Fellow, Nigeria Economic Summit Group, NESG, and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, Managing Partner Nextier and Honorary Fellow at the School of Government at the University of Birmingham, UK, make these recommendations.
As part of Nigeria’s four-year election cycle, off-cycle elections are conducted outside the normal elections schedule.
Off-cycle elections are conducted after a resignation, court nullification, impeachment, or other vacancy.
Nigeria will have another election in November 2023 after its general elections. Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa States will elect governors.
INEC reports 18 political parties running in Kogi, 17 in Imo, and 16 in Bayelsa.
Nextier said that the off-cycle elections would further define INEC’s credibility and validity after the February 25 presidential election problems.
Given the difficulties that surrounding the general elections on February 25, the result of the off-cycle elections will further define INEC’s image and legitimacy, and violence in the three states is a major worry.
During the general election, violence occurred. Nonetheless, post-election violence has increased. According to the Nextier Violent Conflict Database, February 2023 had 253 casualties, March 502 and April 444.
“Rising violence may affect the off-cycle elections. So, the unique and overlapping violent conflict types influencing electoral states must be identified. The research said that political and power struggles may worsen pre-existing problems and cause catastrophic bloodshed.
Nextier said that “the result of the general elections would undoubtedly affect Nigeria’s off-cycle elections. Election security relies on INEC and security agencies’ willingness to improve in November 2023.
Political parties, supporters, voters, and the public must also contribute to a peaceful election. If election stakeholders follow the law, electoral violence may decrease.
Nextier claimed “there is no definite answer to the issue of electoral violence and violent disputes” in off-cycle elections.
The researchers advised limiting violence before off-cycle elections:
“Security authorities should gather and utilise data on the most prevalent election-related violence in the 2023 presidential elections to prepare for future off-cycle elections. Strategic data collection includes think tanks, CSOs, and NGOs. Security intelligence may help comprehend election-related violence and violent concerns.
“Hotspot communities should have security deployments and surveillance year-round. Troops and operational logistics are needed to maintain peace and order in such locations.
“Known election violence offenders and harbingers should be individually admonished and their interactions monitored during, on, and after elections. Social media monitoring is required.
“Accusations of election manipulation and police prejudice often lead to violence. During the 2023 general elections, INEC and the police lost their neutral reputations.
For off-cycle elections, they should rebrand. Avoid anything that calls the electoral body’s integrity into doubt. This includes logistics, strategic messaging, and emergency response.
CSOs and community-based organisations should enhance procedures for early reporting, prevention, and reduction of electoral violence (CBOs).
The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, which brings together over 60 local and national organisations to exchange information, foresee crises, and respond quickly, may handle this strategy. Security agencies can work better with CSOs to maximise these systems.
Security personnel, especially police, should be adequately equipped and retrained. Security officers who incite violence or crime should be punished.
“Security authorities should utilise data from think tanks, CSOs and NGOs to analyse election-related violence,” it said.
To maintain peace and order, security deployments and surveillance in hotspot areas should continue after the elections.
INEC and the police should clean up their acts during off-cycle elections.
“INEC and the police should clean up their act during off-cycle elections.
“Security officers should be retrained to perform better and penalised for supporting or encouraging electoral violence.”
