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Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the Supreme Court won’t invalidate Tinubu’s presidency

Jul 31, 2023 | 2023 Elections | 0 comments

In their latest Nigerian national report, EIU researchers projected that President Bola Tinubu’s victory would stand before the Supreme Court.
The governing All Progressives Congress’s presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, won the February election with 36.6 percent of the vote. EIU expects the court ruling to stand.

EIU has anticipated economic, political, and industrial trends worldwide since 1946. They advise corporations and politicians using data, analysis, and forecasting. Many investors use their reports.

Since 1999, the Nigerian Supreme Court has not overturned a presidential vote, despite the 2007 general elections being so faulty that late President Umaru Musa Yaradua, the primary benefactor, claimed the ballots were manipulated.

“Frustration with the two-party system was made obvious by support for Peter Obi of the fringe Labour Party in the presidential race,” observers said.

Tinubu advises Nigerians to be patient.

“Backed by unions, he will surely boost the party’s profile and become a more powerful force ahead of the 2027 election,” they stated.

The analysis notes that Tinubu has fought aside his low popularity to launch a market reform effort of a size and intensity that is nearly unprecedented in Nigerian history. Still, it anticipates his reform programme to lose pace as the president’s low political capital erodes.

The research stated Tinubu’s inaugural measures, including addressing Nigeria’s multiple currency rate issue and eliminating wasteful fuel subsidies, “may create a healthier economy in the medium to long term but it involves short-term hardship for consumers.”

Due to a small fiscal footprint, the EIU says families cannot be protected from increasing costs.

“In a country already grappling with multiple security crises that are fuelled by high unemployment (a third of the workforce in 2020, the most recent official data) and widespread poverty, the potential for mass unrest is a major risk to both the smooth implementation of reforms and the ability of the government to survive its first term,” the report said.

Observers say that being a southern Yoruba Muslim, Tinubu appealed to southerners and northern Muslims.

Nevertheless, his pick of a Muslim running partner, Kashim Shettima, indicated that he prioritized capturing the vote-rich Muslim north, alienating him from the Christian-majority south, where secession cries may strengthen.

They also agreed that Nigerian politics is flexible, with party allegiances largely based on political expediency rather than conviction.

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